Question 1 Exchange rates

Lebanon’s currency value plunges to 100,000 against US dollar

The Lebanese pound, after many decades pegged at 1,507-1,512 to the US$, has sunk to a historic low against the US dollar on the country’s parallel market, the latest sombre milestone in an economic meltdown that has plunged much of the population into poverty.

The Lebanese pound, officially pegged at 15,000 to the dollar, was trading at 100,000 against the greenback, dealers said on Tuesday – a dizzying plunge from 1,507 before the economic crisis hit in 2019.

Table 1: Lebanese economy May 2022 to May 2023

  May 2022 May 2023
Value of US$ to Lebanon £ 1,507 15,307
Lebanese economic growth -6.5% -5.75
Inflation % 121.59 123.89
Current account balance $ million -673.6 -854.5
Questions

a. i. Explain the difference between the official rate of 15,000 to 1$ and the parallel market rate of 100,000. [2]

ii. Calculate the cumulative change in economic growth and inflation between May 2022 and 2023. [4]

iii. Explain with a diagram the pegging of the Lebanese £ at 1,507-1,512 to the US$ [4]

iv. Explain why the Lebanese £ may have depreciated since May 2022 [2]

v. Illustrate the effect of the fall in the value of the Lebanese £ on the rate of inflation (table 1) [4]

vi. Suggest why the falling currency value and inflation may have 'plunged much of the population into poverty' [4]

b. Using the passage and your knowledge of economics recommend a policy that the Egyptian central bank may employ to support the £ in currency markets. [10]